The study seeks to understand the problem of rainfall, particularly for identification of any trend or persistence in the rainfall series in the five districts of Sagar division of Madhya Pradesh. A statistical analysis of the rainfall pattern is conducted using World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommended statistical techniques for climatological analysis. Besides studying the statistical parameters and cross correlation, other techniques like linear regression and polynomial regression have been applied to identify the presence of any trend.
The study indicated that the serial correlation was very poor indicating absence of any persistence in the rainfall series of the region. All the raingauge stations show very good correlation with their neighboring raingauge stations. The coefficient of skewness of monsoon season and annual rainfall is nearly zero indicating a near normal distribution of rainfall in the region. From the decadal mean of annual rainfall series, it was seen that rainfall during the 1961-70 was low and it was high during 1971-80 and 1981-90 except at some places in Panna and Tikamgarh districts.
Linear regression of monthly rainfall data shows falling trend at some places in Panna and Tikamgarh districts and shows rising trend at some places of Sagar, Damoh and Chhatarpur districts. Polynomial regression of rainfall data has indicated non-linear trend in the seasonal and annual rainfall series at Raheli, Jatara, Ajaygarh and Panna. The polynomial regression of non-monsoon rainfall series does not indicate any trend.
The study is aimed at presentation of hydrological information in a condensed form for decision making in water resources planning of the region.
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