Marathwada is one of the most drought-prone regions of India and the increasing severity of droughts and their adverse impacts on socioeconomic conditions in the region have been of major concern in recent years. Majority of the area of Marathwada is under rain-fed agriculture and the summer monsoon rainfall is crucial for agricultural production in the region.
And the region is already experiencing drought like conditions this year due to deficient rainfall by August in all the districts except Nanded and Hingoli. The water storage levels in the dams are down to 42 percent while they were at 87 percent at this time last year. Fears are that the Kharif production could show a drop by 50 percent this year. (Sakal, Monday, 28th August 2023)
What are the reasons for enhancement of drought like conditions in the region? This study titled 'Exploring the association between changing crop types and water scarcity: A case study over West-Central India' published in Climate attempts to shed light and make connections between climatic and agricultural causes that lead to increase in severity of droughts over Marathwada such as the summer monsoon rainfall cycle, ground water levels, and crop yield .
Trends seen in summer monsoon in Marathwada
A decreasing rainfall trend with an annual mean of 662.9 mm/year has been noticed from 1981 to 2018 over the whole of Marathwada, while half of the districts of Marathwada have witnessed a slight increase in the whole monsoon (JJAS) rainfall after the year 1981.
Thus positively inclining trends in rainfall have been found over Latur, Beed, Jalna and Aurangabad. All other districts, i.e. Nanded, Parbhani, Osmanabad, and Hingoli, show decreasing trends. Maximum decline has been seen in Nanded, Parbhani and Jalna.
Most of the sowing activities are carried out in June and the decreasing rainfall trends are a concern for agriculture, but increasing rainfall in July is a good sign of water availability for agriculture in its growing stages.
Five districts have seen increasing rainfall trends in August with Beed, Latur and Jalna showing maximum increase while Parbhani, Nanded and Hingoli show decreasing rainfall trends. All the districts show a decreasing rainfall trend with the maximum decreasing rate observed over the districts of Beed and Osmanabad in September.
Crops with low water requirements show a declining trend
Low water requirement crops such as jowar, bajra, wheat, safflower, and udad have been decreasing while high water requirement crops such as cotton, sugarcane, rice, soybean, and maize have been increasing in the region from the year 1996 onwards.
The maximum decline has been seen in jowar over Nanded district, followed by Hingoli and Parbhani. Jalna shows the highest yield depletion for bajra, followed by Latur, Osmanabad, and Parbhani. The highest reduction in udad crop yield has been experienced over Jalna, followed by Nanded, Parbhani, and Hingoli. It is also noticed that not only the crop yield of low-water-requirement crops has decreased, but the overall area under these crops is also declining.
High water requirement crops are increasing
Cotton, sugarcane, rice, soybean, and maize are high-water requirement crops and the per hectare production and area of cotton and sugarcane has remarkably increased in the last two decades throughout Marathwada with Aurangabad district having the highest increasing rate for sugarcane followed by Jalna and Latur.
The per hectare cotton production has increased in all the districts with the maximum increase being observed in Latur. Maize and soybean show the highest increase in Aurangabad, while Jalna is under the maximum rice yield production.
Groundwater fluctuations
Marathwada is becoming highly dependent on groundwater for agriculture and the area experiencing a significant decline (3.5 m/considered period) in the annual ground water level. The maximum decrease in annual ground water level has been noticed in Parbhani (5 m/considered period), Hingoli (4 m/considered period), Nanded, and Beed (4 m/considered period). Seasonal analysis of groundwater levels finds that all districts of Marathwada except Osmanabad show declining groundwater levels in the pre- and postmonsoon season.
Increasing groundwater levels were found over Beed, Jalna, and Osmanabad during the monsoon season. These rising ground water level trends are promising signs of water availability, indicating the occurrence of good monsoon rains over those districts.
The rainfall trend shows that 2002, 2009, 2012, 2014, and 2015 have been deficient years from 2001 to 2018. The groundwater levels have also shown significant decline over the years. However, crop yield values over those times have been comparatively higher with high-water-requirement crops such as cotton and sugarcane. The extensive depletion in the groundwater level can be attributed to higher number of water-intensive crops over the drought years.
The way forward
The paper argues that:
- A multi-pronged approach that involves farmers, government, and communities is needed in the region which focuses on promoting drought-tolerant crops, adopting precision irrigation techniques, implementing regulations, social awareness, and community involvement.
- Government authorities and policymakers should encourage area specific sustainable water management policies and their implementation. Creating awareness about the efficient use of water through proper water and crop management practices is important to minimise water wastage and improve water-use efficiency.
- Rainwater harvesting can help farmers collect and store rainwater for crop irrigation. Simple rainwater harvesting structures (rooftop rainwater harvesting systems, farm ponds, etc.) could be constructed to capture and store rainwater.
- Farmers should consider a holistic approach where soil health, soil erosion, and water management can be taken care of during crop cultivation. Better forecasting mechanisms, using advanced agricultural tools, high-quality seeds, organic pesticides, and weather-tolerant crops (smaller in size) will provide profit and satisfaction to the farmers with whichever crop they will grow.
- More than monsoon vagaries, the use of high-water-demanding crop types and anthropogenic activities largely influence the severity and frequency of droughts over Marathwada and can be minimised through properly managing agricultural practices, controlling the over-exploitation of ground water, and implementing effective policy guidelines, argues the paper.
The paper can be accessed here.
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