Advancing people-centric early warning systems

Between 1995 and 2015, 90% of disasters were weather-related, causing significant human and economic losses. In 2020 alone, weather-related disasters led to 15,000 deaths and a cost of approximately US$ 171 billion. India reported a loss of 6811 lives from hydro-meteorological hazards between April 2018 and March 2021. Recognising the pivotal role of early warning in saving lives, there has been a global shift towards 'Impact-based Forecast and Warning (IbFW) services in a multi-hazard framework.'

Despite existing studies exploring the potential of IbFW, questions persist about its precise meaning and distinctions from forecasting hazard impacts. The concept of 'impact' varies in developmental studies, posing challenges in forecasting hazards' impacts due to confounding factors beyond meteorological elements. The transition to IbFW raises questions about value addition, dynamic vulnerability incorporation, the suitability of meteorological agencies, and public perceptions.

This paper ‘Gap between impact-based and impact forecast and warning: Implications for people-centric early warning system (EWS) in India’ aims to assess the usefulness of India Meteorological Department's (IMD) IbFW services, focusing on existing early warning services (EWS) for hydro-meteorological hazards in India.

The objectives include understanding current services, evaluating them from a user perspective, and identifying gaps for a more people-centered early warning system. The following sections delve into the evolution of Multi-Hazard IbFW Services, IMD's existing services, methodology, findings, and a concluding discussion.

Early warning system: Evolution

The modern early warning system traces its roots back to the 1950s, emerging from conflict-related and extreme event considerations. The Russian early warning system, developed in the 1960s–70s for nuclear missile protection during the Cold War, exemplifies the system's early implementations.

The natural hazard-centric early warning system took shape in the early 1970s, responding to crises like the Ethiopian food shortage, leading to the establishment of the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). Noteworthy systems like the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) followed in 1985, primarily due to prolonged droughts in Africa.

Early warning systems integrate hazard monitoring, forecasting, risk assessment, communication, preparedness, and processes to enable timely action. The 'People-Centered EWS' emphasises inclusivity, contrasting with the 'Community-Centric EWS,' which stresses local community involvement in design and comprehension. Despite these frameworks, achieving meaningful community participation remains challenging.

Multi-Hazard Impact-Based Forecast and Warning

Impact-Based Forecast and Warning (IbFW) represents a significant shift, prioritizing the consideration of a hazard's impacts over traditional weather information. Advocated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), IbFW includes vulnerability considerations and distinguishes itself from general weather warnings. Despite the global shift toward IbFW, challenges persist, notably in integrating dynamic elements like vulnerability and exposure.

Scholars identify research gaps, emphasising the need for dynamic risk assessments in the face of urbanisation, land-use changes, environmental degradation, and climate change. Challenges include nonlinear hazard-impact relationships, cause identification, and mismatches between predicted hazards and driving impact factors.

A proposed framework envisions IbFW as a continuum, evolving from hazard-centric forecasts to comprehensive multi-hazard and multi-impact modelling. This study applies this framework to assess hydro-meteorological warning services in India, highlighting the intricate challenges and the evolving nature of Impact-Based Forecasting methodologies.

India's hydro-meteorological early warning system

India's early warning system for hydro-meteorological hazards are primarily managed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). These services cover a range of hazards, including tropical cyclones, heavy rainfall, heatwaves, cold waves, fog, smog, thunderstorms, lightning, and flash floods. The IMD also provides specialised forecasts for various sectors such as agriculture, tourism, marine, power, air quality, health, highways, and railways.

Unlike some countries with a single entity overseeing both hydrological and meteorological services, India distributes mandates across multiple organisations. The Central Water Commission (CWC) manages riverine flood forecasts, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MOAFW) oversees drought-related concerns. IMD collaborates with various agencies, providing real-time rainfall forecasts to entities like Railways, Ministry of Water Resources, State Governments, and District Administrations.

India Meteorological Department's Impact-based Forecast and Warning (IbFW) Framework

IMD's IbFW framework covers hazards like tropical cyclones, heavy rainfall, lightning, thunderstorms, squalls, fog, cold waves, and heatwaves, evolving through meteorological thresholds, qualitative methods, climatological impact models, and real-time dynamic forecasts with exposure and vulnerability elements.

Collaborating with agencies like National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and implementing projects like Integrated Flood Warning System (IFLOWS), IMD employs a Risk-Response matrix with colour codes for decision support. Introduced in 2006, colour codes indicate alert, warning, and post-landfall outlook levels for tropical cyclones. Despite strides, challenges persist in translating dynamic impact-based warnings for the public, emphasising the need for improved public-facing IbFW. Initiatives like the 'Climate Hazard and Vulnerability Atlas' and vulnerability indices at the district level demonstrate IMD's commitment to enhancing vulnerability assessment and risk communication.

Methodology

The study, adopting a qualitative approach with a case study methodology, aimed to explore gaps within India's Impact-based Forecast and Warning (IbFW) services and enhance their usability for the public. Focused on Puri district, the field site experienced various hazards, including tropical cyclones like Phailin, Titli, Fani, and Jawad, along with droughts, floods, sunstrokes, tsunamis, epidemics, and earthquakes. The district's vulnerability was assessed, focusing on the Krushnaparasad block.

Findings

Informal impact analysis

The findings from focus group discussions (FGDs) reveal that impact analysis is informally conducted at the individual and household levels, considering various factors such as the nature of risks and vulnerabilities. Respondents are accustomed to interpreting hazard forecasts, often in a multi-hazard framework. For instance, the combination of heavy rainfall and strong winds during a cyclonic storm is perceived as more impactful than each hazard individually. The analysis extends to different hazards, such as drought, where untimely rainfall is considered a risk. Geographical and climatological contexts also influence impact evaluations.

• Impact-based Forecast and Warning (IbFW) through colour codes: The use of colour codes by the IMD to communicate risk was generally overlooked by participants. Most were unaware of this system, relying on television and radio broadcasts for warnings. In instances where colour codes were acknowledged, participants associated red with high danger during cyclones, orange with medium impact, and yellow with minimal impact. However, disputes arose, with participants citing conflicting forecasts from various sources. The IMD's forecasts were considered one input among others, including personal experiences and observations.
• Impact as consequences: The consensus across FGDs was that impacts are best understood as consequences. A case study of Tropical Cyclone ‘Jawad’ highlighted the gap between existing conceptions and potential improvements. While IMD accurately forecasted the cyclone's movement, rainfall, and general impact, it failed to specifically warn about crop damage due to heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding. The consequences extended to disruptions in power supply, drinking water scarcity, and damage to boats. Participants emphasised the need for warning services to cover such specific consequences.
• Warning for emerging risks: Beyond conventional hazards like cyclones and droughts, FGD participants expressed the need for warning services for emerging risks associated with climate change. This includes variations in rainfall patterns and new agricultural pests affecting cashew plants. While the Agriculture Department assesses drought based on meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural parameters, there's a demand for more nuanced forecasts, especially regarding intra-monsoon rainfall variations. Participants highlighted the impact of delays in monsoon rainfall on agriculture, stressing the importance of timely warnings for emerging risks.

The study underscores the importance of recognising and addressing the gaps in current warning systems. The informal nature of impact analysis at the community level, limited awareness of colour-coded warnings, the understanding of impacts as consequences, and the need for warnings tailored to emerging risks all contribute to the overall findings. Enhancing communication and forecasting strategies based on these findings could significantly improve the effectiveness of disaster preparedness and response measures.

Discussion and conclusion

The study reveals three critical aspects. Firstly, respondents blend formal IMD warnings with personal experiences, offering a nuanced perspective on anticipated losses. Secondly, citizens emphasise the need for more specific impact forecasts, revealing a gap in perception between forecasters and citizens. Thirdly, challenges arise in distinguishing 'impact-based' from 'impact forecasts and warning,' hindering accurate societal-level applications.

It recommends linking district-level Hazard Risk Vulnerability analysis with IMD's services and advocates collaborative governance for a multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning framework. Despite IMD's shift, challenges persist, necessitating an overhaul of early-warning mechanisms, clarity in agency mandates, data-sharing, and accountability.

The study highlights the evolving need for people-centric early warning systems, calling for continual public dialogue for feedback and satisfaction assessment. While acknowledging study limitations, it recommends similar research in diverse Indian regions for validation.

The full paper can be accessed here